Odds To Advance World Cup
With some surprises for the big teams and some interesting matchups coming up in the World Cup group stage, here is a look at Groups E-H and the updated odds for the teams to advance (all odds from Pinnacle):
Uruguay are the -350 favorites to win the group and have the best odds at +100 to win Group A. This is by far the weakest group in the World Cup, and I’ve been advocating going against Russia to advance. At +125, I would definitely be taking Egypt to advance along with Uruguay at. Australia (+250), the host nation, is the betting favorite to win the ICC T20 World Cup, followed closely by India at +350 and England at +400. The West Indies are the reigning T20 World Cup.
Group E
The Netherlands needed an own goal by Denmark to get things going, but they didn’t disappoint in their opener. The Oranje beat the Scandinavians 2-0 and find themselves at the top of the group. I can’t see them losing to either Japan or Cameroon, and they should take the group easily.
Japan surprised with their victory over Cameroon and put itself in a great position to advance from Group E. I had Cameroon and the Netherlands advancing before the start of the tournament, but Cameroon is in a tough position now, as they will most likely lose to the Netherlands.
If Japan can get a point out of the matchup with Denmark – and right now I see them as the favorite to win that game – it has basically qualified for the Round of 16. There is not a lot of value in this group, unless you think Cameroon can recover and Japan will struggle. In that case, a $414 return for your $100 bet would be a nice profit.
I don’t see this happening though. I think Holland will take the group and Japan will advance as runner-up.
Group F
As I had expected, Italy struggled in their matchup with Paraguay. For a while it looked like Paraguay had a shot at beating the defending champions, but the Italians recovered with a late goal by Daniele De Rossi.
Italy and Paraguay are the favorites to advance from this group. The winner of the group will most likely be determined by the margin of victory in Italy and Paraguay’s matches against New Zealand and Slovakia.
After seeing the Kiwis and Slovakia play, I can’t see either of the two favorites struggle against the two bottom feeders in the group. Slovakia has the best chance of surprising, but I don’t think it will happen.
Italy is still the favorite to win the group, but I could see Paraguay taking it. Both teams play a defensive style and they most likely won’t score big in their remaining matches. It could come down to one goal in the goal difference or even the number of goals scored to determine the winner.
Paraguay offers decent value to win the group at +200. If you think I’m completely wrong here, and Slovakia can make the comeback and advance, check out Pinnacle’s line at +224.
Group G
The Group of Death still has a lot of potential for the rest of the Group stage. Brazil did what it had to do and beat North Korea, but they looked far from the dominant team everyone was expecting after their strong showing in the qualifying stage. They had a hard time beating lowly North Korea and seemed to lack communication.
Ivory Coast drew with Portugal and left the group wide open. Didier Drogba made an appearance, but wasn’t the game changer the Elephants hoped he would be. Portugal’s Cristiano Ronaldo showed flashes of his brilliance, but was otherwise mostly seen diving and whining about the referee’s calls.
With Portugal and the Ivory Coast still having to face Brazil, a lot can happen in this group. They should both be able to beat North Korea, and the final standings in this group will most likely come down to their matchups with the record world champion.
Portugal will have a slight advantage, as it will play Brazil in their final match. The Portuguese will know how the Ivory Coast will have fared in their game against the Selecao, and Portugal will be able to adjust their strategy accordingly. Nevertheless, anything is possible in this group, even Brazil losing to one of the two teams in pursuit.
The odds for teams to advance from the group don’t hold a lot of value, but a surprise winner other than Brazil could score you some nice cash. In my opinion, Ivory Coast has just as good of a shot at beating the Brazilians as Portugal has, so the Elephants’ odds at +527 hold more value than Portugal’s at +400.
Group H
Spain got itself in big trouble by losing its opener to Switzerland. The Red Fury needs to win its remaining matches against Chile and Honduras. The Spanish squad can’t afford another slip-up, and I don’t expect them to have another one. The Swiss with their relentless defense, while technically not the second best team in the group, might have been the toughest matchup for the Spaniards.
Chile took care of business against Honduras and created a lot of scoring chances. However, they need to improve on converting those chances if they want to challenge Spain. The Chileans have a chance of winning the group thanks to Spain’s struggles against Switzerland. Chile and Spain will meet in the final match of the group, and this matchup could decide the group winner. But the group is there for the taking.
Switzerland put itself in a position to advance or even win the group. They haven’t conceded a goal in five straight World Cup matchups, and Ottmar Hitzfeld’s defensive strategy seems to play out once again. The Swiss advanced to the Round of 16 four years ago thanks to a rock-solid defense and great goalkeeping.
Honduras stays at the bottom of the group, and they are probably the only team without a shot at advancing.
The odds for advancing from the group don’t offer particularly great value. The only interesting line would take a huge surprise with Spain failing to advance. This will get you $264 for your $100 bet, but I think Spain will recover and get back into contention for the group.
At this point Pinnacle doesn’t offer odds for winning the group, but 5Dimes does. They see Switzerland as the +133 favorite to end up on top of Group H, but I’m not sure if I agree. While there is a possibility that they will grind out a group win, I would look at Chile for the top position after the group stage. They offer the best value at +250. And even Spain at +205 is an interesting pick.
Anything is possible now that Spain lost to Switzerland and this will be a fun group to follow, whether you have money riding on it or not.
One of the big benefits of World Cup soccer betting is the variety of wagering options available to the public. Not only is soccer betting unique from a match standpoint, but the multitude of futures betting options make this entire event intriguing for savvy gamblers.
The 2018 World Cup is being held in Russia and will run from June 14 to July 15. You can make a basic futures bet on something as simple as which nation will win the tournament. But you can also bet on things like which teams will make the semifinals, which teams will make the quarterfinals and which teams will advance through the group stage and into the Round of 16.
I have always felt that there was a lot of value betting on the odds for teams to quality for the knockout stage. Sleepers and underdogs don't win the World Cup. So, if you have one or two long shots that you like to play well in the tournament then this is a way to cash in on them in a low-risk, high-reward situation with a lot of leeway.
The World Cup features 32 teams broken into eight four-team groups. Each team in the group plays a round robin (three matches). Clubs receive three points for a win and one point for a tie. At the end of those three matches, the two teams with the most points qualify to advance to the Round of 16, or Knockout Stage.
World Cup group odds are currently available at all major offshore books.
Here are odds to win World Cup groups and predictions to win the 2018 World Cup groups:
FIFA World Cup 2018
World Cup Odds To Advance
Odds To Qualify From Group A
Uruguay -500
Russia -325
Egypt +125
Saudi Arabia +725
Odds Of Winning World Cup
2018 World Cup Group A Predictions: All eyes are on Russia in this group. Only one host has ever failed to make it to the knockout stage (South Africa in 2010). And Russia's inflated odds are a reflection of that long-term trend. But Egypt has one of the best players in the tournament in Mo Salah, and Saudi Arabia won't be a total pushover. I don't feel that there is any value betting on anyone in this group to advance, even if you do like one of the underdogs.
Odds To Qualify From Group B
Spain -1200
Portugal -500
Morocco +350
Iran +500
2018 World Cup Group B Predictions: I have a feeling that Portugal is going to flame out in this World Cup, and I am not high on their potential at all. That would open the door for two pretty thick underdogs, Morocco or Iran, to weasel their way through and cash a serious ticket.
Odds To Qualify From Group C
France -2000
Denmark -160
Peru +180
Australia +350
2018 World Cup Group C Predictions: I don't love Denmark as a second favorite. But Peru and Australia are pretty bad. If you are looking for a long shot to advance then you could do worse than Australia. The Socceroos are playing in their fourth straight World Cup and advanced in 2006. It would be difficult for them to escape Group C but not impossible.
Odds To Qualify From Group D
Argentina -825
Croatia -225
Nigeria +250
Iceland +275
2018 World Cup Group D Predictions: I will be more surprised if one of the bottom two underdogs doesn't survive this group than I will be if they do. Argentina has Messi. But they are a flawed favorite playing a long, long way from home. Iceland made the quarterfinals at Euro 2016, beating England and tying eventual champion Portugal in that tournament. And despite Nigeria's low world ranking, there always seems to be one African club that punches its way through to the knockouts.
Odds To Qualify From Group E
Brazil -2200
Switzerland +100
Serbia +115
Costa Rica +375
2018 World Cup Group E Predictions: Brazil has won their group in all six of their World Cup finals since FIFA changed the tournament format back in 1986. And the other three squads in this group know they are playing for second place. Keep an eye on Costa Rica. They are basically the same side that made it all the way to the quarterfinals in Brazil in 2014, with as many as nine of the starting 11 back.
Odds To Qualify From Group F
Germany -1500
Mexico +105
Sweden +110
South Korea +300
2018 World Cup Group F Predictions: Mexico has made it to the Round of 16 in every World Cup in which they've qualified. Yet their odds give an indication of just how tenuous their position in this group really is. If they lose their opener to Germany then they will be behind the eight ball to survive this group, opening the way for one of the other underdogs to sneak in and steal a slot in the next round.
Odds To Qualify From Group G
Belgium -1250
England -900
Tunisia +400
Panama +900
2018 World Cup Group G Predictions: There is absolutely no value betting on either Belgium or England to quality from this group. Their odds are completely out of whack. But there isn't much value on those underdogs, either. Belgium is one of the tournament favorites. And, honestly, if England can't qualify out of this group then I don't think the players will be allowed back to the United Kingdom. Tunisia has some intriguing potential. But their odds should be closer to +700 than to +400.
Odds To Qualify From Group H
Colombia -275
Poland -170
Senegal +135
Japan +185
2018 World Cup Group H Predictions: I will really be stunned if the top two favorites advance from this group. There is a load of parity between these four teams. That also means that if you were to wager equal amounts on Senegal and Japan to advance here then you only need one of them to make it through to the Round of 16 in order to turn a profit. And if both make it through - which is not inconceivable - then it could be a significant score.
ROBERT FERRINGO is one of the top all-sports handicappers in the country and will be releasing rated selections in the 2018 World Cup this June and July. Robert has posted back-to-back winning World Cups (2010 and 2014) and went on an insane +$4,700 run with his plays in Euro 2016. Sign up for his plays here .
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