Back Lay Football Betting
Football Betting – Laying Over 2.5 Goals
Football A Football Betting Guide to Lay Betting Secret To be ultra successful at football lay betting you must fully understand the concep. Livetipsportal explains you how to place back and lay bets at betfair and other betting exchanges. What is back and lay in sports betting? Lay betting is an option on exchanges like Betfair where bettors can play the bookmaker, offering odds to sell a bet instead of to back a bet.It is one component of matched betting, where punters. We explain back and lay betting very simply and with plenty of screenshots. This is how football traders back and lay on Betfair in order to make a profit. Read our full and independent review of Football Betting Alerts, a product intended solely for use at the betting exchanges. Does it make big profits?
A popular trading strategy on betting exchanges is laying the over 2.5 goals market on a football match.
Exchanges such as Betfair offer this market allowing you to lay on whether a specific match will finish with over or under 2.5 goals.
This market is available on the majority of football matches on Betfair and it is a popular market for both normal punters and professional traders, making it an ideal betting strategy to start with.
The market is settled on the number of goals in a football match (excluding extra-time) and the market goes in-running, allowing customers to bet on the outcome in-play.
The strategy is based on the principle that after a football match kicks off, the market for over/under 2.5 goals changes in line with the likelihood of the match finishing with either over or under 2.5 goals.
In reality, you cannot have half or 0.5 of a goal – the number 2.5 is the indicator between 0, 1 or 2 goals for under, and 3 or more goals for over.
When a match kicks off, the time clock starts ticking and with that, there is constantly less and less time for either side to score a goal.
For example, if neither side has scored a goal in the first half, then the likelihood of there being over 2.5 goals scored by the time the match finishes is less likely than at the start of the match.
If there are two early goals scored in the match, however, then the likelihood of there being over 2.5 goals scored by the time the match finishes is more likely than at the start of the match.
So, with this in mind, when a match kicks off and the markets go in-play, the odds will change as the match progresses and it becomes more apparent as to what the possible outcome will be.
At the start of the match, the odds on whether the match will end in over or under 2.5 goals tend to be close together.
As the match progresses, however, they change, with one shortening in price and the other drifting in price, in direct relation to what is occurring in the match.
To look to guarantee a profit when laying under the 2.5 goals market, you lay (bet on that event not occurring) under 2.5 goals before the match kicks off, and then look to back (place a bet on that event occurring) under 2.5 goals at a larger price in-running after hopefully an early goal has been scored.
There can be a number of reasons why a match may end in over 2.5 goals.
The teams involved in a specific match may have strikers who are in scoring form or the teams as a whole might both be scoring a lot of goals.
In this instance, it is likely that matches involving these teams are likely to end with over 2.5 goals being scored.
Exercises
Odds:
- The lay price for M’gladbach was 1.83 at Betfair
- Hamburg’s Asian Handicap price for +0.5 goals at Pinnacle was 2.24
- The Double Chance (Draw/Hamburg) X2 bet at 32Red was priced at 2.13
- The best draw price was with 5Dimes at 3.99; Pinnacle provided the best odds to back Hamburg at 4.93
Required Result:
- Four different bet types all with the same aim: to bet against M’gladbach winning the game
Fact:
- M’gladbach’s actual (‘true’) statistical chance of winning the game in this example was exactly 51%
Questions:
Suppose you are faced with 100 identical lay bets (same odds, same back bet opportunities, etc.):
What Is Back Or Lay Betting
- What is the long-term profit or loss for 100 bets:
i) Laying M’gladbach with an exchange at 5% commission?
ii) Backing Hamburg in the Asian Handicap +0.5 market with a bookmaker at zero commission? - What is the expected long-term profit or loss if you bet with an even distribution:
25 lay bets with an exchange at 5% commission?
25 Asian Handicap bets with bookmakers at zero commission?
25 double chance back bets with bookmakers at zero commission?
25 ‘Dutch’ back bets with bookmakers at zero commission?
What next?
We find that Pinnacle Sports and Bet365 are currently the top bookmakers for Asian Handicap betting. An account with both is therefore essential for those of you who regularly bet on lay results in betting exchanges.
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